What Needs to be Done to Beat Vettel?


by Jake McMillan

The 2011 Belgian Grand Prix yesterday was a very entertaining race, but another sight of the Vettel victory finger means that is now extremely difficult for anyone to stop him achieving another F1 Championship.

Yesterday’s result means that Massa (on 74 points) cannot win the Championship now, but there is still a mathematical chance for Webber (167 points), Alonso (157 points), Button (149 points) and Hamilton (146 points). A closer look at the mathematical position reveals the following:

  • The earliest Vettel could potentially win the Championship is in Singapore (2 races time)
  • If second placed Webber won ALL the remaining races, Vettel would need to average 4th place (12 pts) to still win Championship
  • If Alonso, Button or Hamilton won ALL the remaining races, Vettel would need to average 5th place (10 pts) to still win Championship (note: 10.4pts in case of Alonso)
The likelihood of one of these 4 drivers winning ALL the remaining 7 races is extremely unlikely and it is more probable that these will be split between them making it is very easy for Vettel to win the Championship. If he took a a very cautious approach and finished in 6th place at each remaining race, he would still be world champion even if Webber won 3 races and finished 2nd in the other four! 
h
Even if he has one retirement (DNF), he can still average 6th place and will still likely be World Champion if the wins are shared between the other four drivers.
j
Conclusion: For Vettel to be beaten to the 2011 F1 World Championship crown, the following has to happen at the very minimum:
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- Vettel needs at least one DNF
- Webber needs to win at least 3 of remaining 7 races
- Alonso needs to win at least 4 of remaining 7 races
- Button & Hamilton need to win at least 5 of remaining 7 races
- A miracle
j
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